The NCCOS Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System (HABOFS) is a national network of HAB forecasts which provide guidance on regionally-specific risks and impacts of HABs, including current bloom conditions (nowcasts), as well as short-term (once or twice weekly) and seasonal forecasts of future HAB conditions and impacts.
NCEI manages the long-term archive of model input and forecast output files for HABOFS which is implemented by the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) within the National Ocean Service (NOS). HABOFS provides advanced warning of HABs that impact coastal natural resources, people, communities, and economies.
HAB operational forecasts are generated on a routine, pre-defined schedule, based on regional conditions and end-user needs. Currently, NCEI hosts archived data for Lake Erie, and the Florida and Texas HABOFS.
For more information and real-time forecast output: Launch NCCOS HAB Forecasting
Data Types
NCCOS HAB forecasts provide regionally specific information that is designed to meet the needs of the regional ecology and stakeholder needs. Examples include:
Processed Satellite Imagery
Satellite imagery processed as part of NCCOS’ Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring System which routinely delivers near real-time information for locating and quantifying HABs in coastal and Great Lakes regions around the US. Several of NCCOS’ HABOFS use processed satellite imagery for HAB nowcasts and forecasts, which are archived within NCEI.
Note: When working with the processed satellite imagery, please pay attention to the version control which corresponds to the satellite reprocessing version that was used in the associated HABOFS product. The version control may not reflect the most up-to-date satellite reprocessing version, but corresponds to the version used in the associated HABOFS products.
Forecast Output
NCEI archives forecast output for several regions of the NCCOS HABOFS. The temporal and spatial frequency of each HAB forecast is dependent on regionally specific needs.
Forecast Bulletin
For certain regions, forecast bulletins are generated which provide a summary of current (nowcast) conditions and forecasted conditions (up to five days in the future).
Archived Products
NCEI manages the long-term archive of the NCCOS HABOFS model output files, which are archived within one year.
NCCOS HABOFS Output
| Region | Year | Name | Model Cycle | Access Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida and Texas | 2024 | Florida and Texas Respiratory Irritation Forecast | 3 hour | |
|
Florida 8-Day Satellite Composite Images |
Daily | HTTPS | ||
|
Texas 8-Day Satellite Composite Images |
Daily | HTTPS | ||
| 2023 | Florida and Texas Respiratory Irritation Forecast | 3 hour | HTTPS | |
| Florida 8-Day Satellite Composite Images | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| Texas 8-Day Composite Images | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| 2022 | Florida and Texas Respiratory Irritation Forecast | 3 hour | HTTPS | |
| Florida 8-Day Satellite Composite Images | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| Texas 8-Day Satellite Composite Images | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| Lake Erie | 2023 |
Processed Satellite Imagery Input |
Daily | HTTPS |
| HAB Bulletin | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| 2022 | Processed Satellite Imagery Input | Daily | HTTPS | |
| HAB Bulletin | Daily | HTTPS | ||
| 2021 | Processed Satellite Imagery Input | Daily | HTTPS | |
| HAB Bulletin | Daily | HTTPS |
Product Documentation
Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting
NCCOS’ HAB forecasts alert coastal managers to blooms before they cause serious damage. Short-term (daily to hourly) forecasts identify which blooms are potentially harmful, how big they are, and where they are likely to occur. Early warning provides health officials, environmental managers, and water treatment facility operators information to focus their testing to guide beach and shellfish bed closures or water treatment in a more appropriate timeframe. Forecasts also allow the seafood and tourism industries to minimize impacts of HABs.
HAB forecasts are developed for individual regions and are based on our understanding of HABs and how they respond to regionally changing weather and ocean conditions. HAB forecasts also rely on the ability to routinely and remotely detect HABs, their toxins, and environmental conditions that foster blooms and enhance their toxicity.
References
Satellite Imagery
Wynne, T., Meredith, A., Stumpf, R., Briggs, T., & Litaker, W. (2020). Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting Branch Ocean Color Satellite Imagery Processing Guidelines, 2020 Update. http://doi.org/10.25923/606t-m243
